To address some "wagering" debates from the Vegas perspective.

1. Lines are set for the customer to LOSE money to us, it`s that simple. We don`t care who wins or loses the game. We care about what line will entice the customer to say "this is to good to be true" or the more popular "this is a lock". Why do you think we ALWAYS come out on top.

2. Negative/Positive spread dif for all games over the week has nothing to do with how well lines are set, you look at each individual line.

3. Looking inside lines there are many key numbers but these are the most important when predicting the outcome: FG score, TD score, and combos of the 2.

4. It`s very easy to say "I would be making a killing off of Sheridan". The reality? Not so easy when your picks are documented. I believe ARG is the only one even close to even (he is still up from a good run) and most give up after a few dismal weeks....although Vegas is ALWAYS looking for new suckers....er Customers.


Sheridan YTD

21/30 (70%) - correct team favored
4/30 (13%) - line within 1 point
11/30 (37%) - line within 3.5 points
16/30 (53%) - line within 8 points


The Bookie YTD (1 Week)

8/10 (80%) - correct team favored
0/10 (0%) - line within 1 point
1/10 (10%) - line within 3.5 points
8/10 (80%) - line within 8 points

I agree. And that is a very good way of comparing lines.

He shut you up.

I agree also, and was in no way indicating it would be easy to make money off of either of you.

"2. Negative/Positive spread dif for all games over the week has nothing to do with how well lines are set, you look at each individual line."

Although I agree, the spread diff DID indicated how off the spreads were, but that doesn`t necessarily impact the money that would`ve been made. That`s why the best method of evaluation is to observe how much money each bookie would`ve made in a week if a $100 bet were placed against each line. Although, games with smaller lines would obviously be worth more money than games with larger lines. So there will always be small flaws in the system, but multiple methods of evalution can give the customer a better idea of who the want to go with as their bookie for certain games.

Should i begin posting my spreads here? As stated on the other thread, my picks this week (although I didnt post them) were extremely close.

What`s next a celeberty death tag team match between The Bookie, Book Keeper Analyst, and Sheridan.

Give me $100 on Sheridan K.O.`ed by the 2nd round.

whoa buddy, you forgot about someone...$100 on myself

BKA, I`m not sure you understand the point of a bookie. Were not supposed to bet on our own lines, Sheridan hit the nail right on it`s head saying that bookies are supposed to set lines that are seemingly lucrative, but really aren`t, to draw gamblers to bet on them. A lucrative line for vegas is one with zero variance from the actual point differential. Sheridan devised a good way of splitting up the results of each line, into outstanding, great and decent splits. Looking a Sheridan`s breakdown, it is easy to see how consistent he is over a long period of time, and that luck might have a lot to do with my own picks my first week, seeing that I haven`t been as spot on to the level of Sheridan.

I understand the concept of a bookie, and believe that my lines will be steller. Stay tuned!

PS-$100 on "The Third Bookie"

I understand the point is to make a lucrative spread to bet on (for customers to bet on that is). Sheridans spreads were indeed lucrative. However, FOR THIS WEEK ALONE, your spreads were closer to the zero variance from the point differential that you mentioned above, no? Either way, my first method of evaluation today was choppy and it will be improved upon in weeks to come. Just keep up the good work both of you.

Although I did not post last week, the spreads I had on paper where even closer than Sheridans.

Novacaines LB playin like the garbage he is (+10)

you are saying he is favored to not play like garbage. Otherwise, it would be -10.

Although I did not bust last week, the spread I had on ******** was even closer than that! lol

I agree with the notion of comparing how much money you would have made with both options.

Addendum -

1. I agree with the notion of comparing how much money you would have made with both options.
2. I also like the way Sherdian broke it down also. I like those four line items.

Gambling is illegal Mr.Locs

I am not sure what was said to me, but I assume it was an insult. I will be posting my spreads this week, you do not have to make picks. As stated, I don`t play in the league I just think you guys are great athletes so I enjoy it. Best luck this week!

You guys are all idiots.

At the request of someone from the Sunday IFFL league I thought I might come on here and offer my expertise. But after reading this particular thread... I think you peasants are even (dare I say) "stupider" than my Sunday peasants.

Lines are not set because the “seem lucrative” to the bettor or may be “too good to be true”.. That only plays out for all those Washington Redskin fans that can’t believe their team is an underdog to the New York Giants (in New York even).

No, the line is set by a consortium of people that know way more than you about football. If you ever wonder who that may be, well he’s talking to you peasant! The opening line in nothing more than a line in the sand. A line may open at 7, and if everyone starts taking the favorite, then the line moves to 6, 5 & a hook, and so on. So now the peasant asks, why does the line move?

Well dummy, because the bookie could care less about who wins or who loses. Ain’t that right Sheri-baby??! The bookies only goal is to have even money on both sides of the bet. That means for a super-example, no matter what, he has 250k betting on Pittsburgh and another 250k betting on Arizona. Why??? Well dumb-dum, let me tell you about the vig…

The vig is an old Jersey term, going back farther to Sicily, going back even farther to Yiddish. The ‘vig’ or vigorish is the money bookmakers make on a bet regardless of the outcome. Typically a bookmaker will collect 10% of either your winnings or losings when you play – but not both (unless you’re a horrible gambler.) So going back to my earlier example, as long as the bookmaker as even money on both sides of Pitt-Ariz… he’s set to make $25k (10% of 250k). But the real trick is to keep the money even!!

So how does he keep the money even?!?! Well that’s where Sheri-baby is half right, in that he is trying to entice you to bet one side or the other… how does he do that?? Point spread, newbie!! If I needed more Florida money in a Florida vs. Vanderbilt standoff, I’d lower the point spread to Florida –3… you’d be that wouldn’t you? Of course you would… even a peasant would take that free money! And suddenly, the bookie is coming even on the Florida side. As soon as Florida money equals Vanderbilt money, then there’s nothing but vig for the bookie.. and he doesn’t care who wins, because he gets paid either way!

Now this was a free lesson, but if you peasants want to subscribe to the newsletter, I’m still accepting Spring subscriptions at a discounted rate…


~ARG

ARG! ARG! ARG! ARG! ARG! ARG! (chanting his name as if he is the savior of stupid gamblers/bookies on this messageboard that think they know it all)

Well let me ask you this Mr. ARG. It is annoying having more than one legitamite bookie. How would we best go about evaluating who the better bookie is, thus reserving his place on the messageboard as the official bookie of the FCFFL??

There is no such thing as a better bookie. If therly were actual bookies, their lines would be adjusted as the week goes on to maintain even money on both sides, but this is flag football and everything is posted with a grain of salt

The bookie does not matter because the bookie is only out to make money. Does it matter if there are more than 2 lines going? No. That is because you can pick what lines you want to bet on.

Before betting class is adjourned, what`s the over/under for the numbskulls on this board that actually understand anything ARG explained in the Vegas Manifesto?

the better bookie is the bookie that can actually get any of you ******s to bet actual $$ on his lines.

People Who Understood (+25) People Who Misunderstood

Drop some knowledge ARG!

Reality Man

Hmmm- maybe I should listen to you. Hmmmm...

dont you simple minded c*ck$uckers have anything better to bet on ?

and what in the he!! was going on with those games last night?

WEAK,WEAK and some more WEAK!!!!

spaldings need to retire

Blankman hides again. Put up or shut up jack*** meat. Where was your squad or were you just out there to watch those so call "weak" teams.

Sef81

watching

??? score ?

moron can`t you read. Go to where the scores are posted.

where that is ?

post the damn thing if you know it

to "Seasons" "2009 Spring". The website will guide you from there.

then click on "League Schedule" once you`ve done all that, THEN the website will guide you. And yeah the score was 21-6 TC I believe. So much for that shut out they were talking about yesterday.

doesnt care about shutouts, they care about finishing with the trophy in hand again

And best believe we will, ballin` all day!

Question. Real talk. I’m looking to hear from all of the anonymous impersonators on this one. What’s the obsession with posting as another team or player? Before I make any assumptions on why you do it, I’d like to hear from you. So sound off. Note: If you’re going to practice your lame stand up skills with the replies at least make them decipherable, understandable and try funny.

I completely agree and WISH TO GOD that we all had to sign in to post replies.

Come on LOCS, you know this is no imposter, we`re teammates bro! I guess the only reason anyone would post as another team is to get a cheap laugh at work when people actually take them seriously? TC winning the championship 2nd season in a row baby! Unstoppable!

FO SHO HO!

Ok, that was cute. Sooo teammate answer a question for me. What did the three crowns stand for last year? Or what`s the new team rule? If you can`t answer any of those questions answer this one, What’s the obsession with posting as another team or player? I`m just curious.

The 3 Crowns stood for ****, ****, and more ****. And the new team rule is the circle jerk always starts to the right.

1.) 3 crowns- Our goal is to win more than 3 championships in a row because that`s what the Sharks did

2.) New team rule- No more inter-team dating (can`t mix business with pleasure)

3.) "I guess the only reason anyone would post as another team is to get a cheap laugh at work when people actually take them seriously?"

The 3 Crowns stood for C OCK, C OCK, and more C OCK. And the new team rule is the circle jerk always starts to the right.

TC-85`s response is better and more accurate

Ok, I give up posers. I gave you your opportunity to vent.

re:TC
That was funny. And the Sharks have won more than 3 championships.

"3 championships in a row" READ IT THOUROUGHLY LOCS! THAT`S THE TRIPLE CROWN WAY! We`re on our way to our 2nd this season!! FO SHO

LOCs as a fellow imposter poster, you need to understand you cannot beat us, only join us. Take your best guess at who is pretending to be you and bash them inadvertantly. That`s my advice.

lOCS just know that we all love you man.
I mean who else would take steroids just to play flag football? You are my idol sir because I aspire to be an over zealous and overrated pill popping juice head when I grow up too. And then the only thing that will separate us is I will leave your house when I am finished with her while you would roll over and go back to sleep. And FYI I used your tooth brush.

That was a little over the edge even for an imposter poster. I know TRUTH doesn`t want to get his skull crushed like a cantelope.

I think the big thing to come away from all of this is, when you sign-in or post as yourself, you are only setting yourself up for failure. In the end, the ananymous posters will eat you up on this messageboard. Because what can you do? Fight them? Insult them personally? No, you can`t do that, bc you dont know who they are.

FEARS NONE.

will eventually stop F-ing w/ true comedians and leave his jokes on the field.

LOL. True comedians? Pleassseee. I have friends that are true comedians and they would wipe the floor with your lame a*z jokes. My jokes on the field produce hardware your lame jokes produce silence. I`m done for today. I hope I gave everyone something enjoyable to read today. I`ll give you posers a new topic tomorrow. So here`s your homework for today go home and think of something original and funny and holla at me tomorrow. One

LOCS kills us with kindness once again...and don`t lie LOCS I know youre still reading the messageboard today!

to hearing from you tom.

Come on LOCS dont be a B!tch talk smack and when you post a topic tomorrow lets make it about something interesting like the size of your wifes vagina or how she has dreads on her box and it looks like buckwheat has an open head wound

you gonna tatle tale f*ggit?

tom. as in tomorrow not Tom the commish

Oh...soryy about that, you should`ve reemed me for how stupid I am. We can all learn a lesson from "that is", and that is that you need not insult somebody to correct their faults.

we all learned something from WHY and thats how to suck someone off after trying to get hard with them

and that`s a valuable lesson you`ll need to learn in like "and".

thats ***tastic

Very bad idea Locs. You opened the door to the board`s Least Common Denominator, the anons and cowards. You are a vet and you made a rookie mistake. The Kangaroo Court fines you 1 haircut and 1 retrieval of the tee after a kickoff. Hopefully you will learn from this atrocity and come back stronger for it.

you my friend are a super douche