Fairfax County Flag Football League

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subject: "Week 3 lines: Review"

Book Keeping Analyst

Apr 17, 2009
9:46 AM

;

FYI- A positive spread differential indicates that the Bookkeepers pick covered the spread. A negative spread differential indicates the Bookkeepers pick did not cover or lost.

Sheridan

Greyhounds/Wolverines: -2
Rejects/Union: +3.5
Blazers/Kryptonites: -8.5
Badboyz/Titans: -10
Triple Crown/Signal: -8.5
Sharks/Frontline: -16
CCR Novas/Hokies: -8
Spalding/Storm: -23
Magnums/Diesel: -0.5
PKL/Novacaine: -19

Total Spread Difference: -92
Correct Picks: 6/10

The Bookie

Greyhounds/Wolverines: +2
Rejects/Union: +7.5
Blazers/Kryptonites: -4.5
Badboyz/Titans: +2.5
Triple Crown/Signal: -4
Sharks/Frontline: -10
CCR Novas/Hokies: -5.5
Spalding/Storm: -23.5
Magnums/Diesel: +4
PKL/Novacaine: +8.5

Total Spread Difference: -23
Correct Picks: 7/10

Bookie`s Book It:

Novacaine will bounce back with convincing win: check
Signal scores on TC: NO
Rejects rush to much for Union: OBVIOUSLY
Krypts lose heartbreaker to Blazers: Nope, should but thats almost what happend.

Week 3 Winner: Bookie
Best call: Novacaine over PKL

Book Keeping Analyst

Apr 17, 2009
10:12 AM


;	For the record-The Book Keeping Analyst is not The Bookie. I simply review the spreads from Sheridan and the Bookie at the weeks completion, and review who made better picks.

Really?

Apr 17, 2009
10:15 AM


;	Does anyone give a sh*t? Sheridan has been making picks for many seasons. I enjoy his threads.

re: Really

Apr 17, 2009
10:24 AM


;	Well Sheridan got smoked by The Bookie this week!! Sheridan step your game up and do some more research and Bookie, I hope your performance this week inspires you to compete with Sheridan week in and week out.

REALITY MAN

Apr 17, 2009
10:35 AM


;	Look....the writing is on the wall and its clear. Triple Crown is the cream at the top, Sharks are probably the next best team, Rejects and Magnums are a tied for 3rd and Badboyz are a clear 4th. Besides that there really are no other good teams in the weeknight league. Facts are facts.

re:

Apr 17, 2009
10:38 AM


;	this is a very flawed way of looking at who picked better. for example, by your logic, someone who picked could be horribly wrong all the time, but if it cancelled out, they would appear good at coming up with these lines (off by 20 points over in one game, off by 20 points under in the other game, by your calc, the picks were off by a net of 0). you should add up the total points that each bookie was off. Not cancel out missed picks since one was over and one was under. also, for what it`s worth, in my opinion, sheridan`s picks are very reasonable and would be very tough if one was actually betting against the spread. I realize it`s just for fun, but most other people posting picks have glaring mistakes in their spreads. just because a bookie was a little less off than Sheridan doesn`t necessarily mean they are better at predicting outcomes overall. if it`s not already obvious, i`m biased towards sheridan. he`s been doing this consistently for a while and is generally very accurate. it`s annoying that someone comes on here, makes bad spreads, gets lucky a few times & acts like he`s better at predicting games. i just hope sheridan keeps in mind that he has a loyal fan base and continues coming up with great lines in the future and isn`t daunted by untested premadonna oddsmakers.

hahaha

Apr 17, 2009
10:42 AM


;	fair enough... but I do indeed enjoy the competition!

Predictions

Apr 17, 2009
10:44 AM


;	Also keep in mind that spreads are not predictions.

Book Keeping Analyst

Apr 17, 2009
10:46 AM


;	to re: I agree that the system is a bit flawed, but even when evaluating the spreads the way you say too, The Bookie had a better week. I got no beef with Sheridan, I am just trying to add fuel to the fire and see some bookkeeping competition at its finest. I think Sheridan gives too big of spreads some times and in real gambling, he would be losing a lot of money by doing that. That showed this week.

Bookie Fan

Apr 17, 2009
10:53 AM


;	Why so much Bookie hate? Its fun to see two different sets of spreads it makes it more interesting. Plus if you owe Sheridan money, then you can just switch over to the Bookie and try to reverse your fortune. Not to mention if you read above, positive spread diff. indicate the team picked covered the spread. Bookie had 5 teams do that as opposed to Sheridans 1. Bookies walking away a richer man,

TC-92LOCS

Apr 17, 2009
11:00 AM


;	I have to admit I`m a long time Sheridan fan and this has been one of his more interesting match ups. Imitation is the best form of flattery. If I had $5 for everyone that has come on here imitating what Sheridan does, I would probably have purchased a team bus by now. Competition is good for my man Sheridan. It`ll keep him motivated. Even Tiger needs motivation from time to time. I was also impressed with the fact that The Bookie came out with his picks before Sheridan. Usually the knock offs will make their picks after Sheridan comes out with his. I look forward to this match up this season. This should be a fun one to watch. Reminds me of Mel Kiper (Sheridan) and maybe the The Bookie is the next Todd McShay. But nonetheless, please no more knock off picks this season until Sheridan knocks off The Bookie. “Get it in the hole Tiger”. Good Luck B®ookie.

re:

Apr 17, 2009
11:03 AM


;	to the analyst: that`s true bookie would still win this week, but the margin is much smaller. plus, that result actually makes sense as a way of evaluating. to bookie fan: that`s a flawed way of looking at it too. how close the spread was is more important than if they covered or not. for example, if bookie A had a line of (-3) and bookie B had a line of (-21) and the team won by 20, bookie B was obviously much more accurate even though the team didn`t cover. i`m all for the fun of competition, and don`t want to cause drama. i just wanted to point out the flaws in the evaluations. also, i think sheridan is more accurate in general, and think it`s silly that so many people come and post about how the bookie is the winner and "sheridan got smoked". although i admit it is true that games this week were a little closer than the lines posted by sheridan.

Book Keeping Analyst

Apr 17, 2009
11:14 AM


;	Sheridan is the legend. He is a registered poster (not a bad idea Bookie...get registered). But LOCS made a good point. The Bookie came out with his picks early and didn`t base what he did off Sheridan. Respectable. Let`s all agree on one thing. The Bookie and Sheridan will be making lines. Any other knock offs will be disregarded and deleted. Competition is great, but anymore than 2 Bookies is too much.

Get

Apr 17, 2009
11:22 AM


;	registered Bookie thats the only way to prevent fraud.

Proposal

Apr 17, 2009
11:29 AM


;	Sheridan- let me start off by saying I love what you do. However, adding a short, paraphrased analysis to the end of your post would be sick. And youve been around so you could offer a lot of insight.

TC-92LOCS

Apr 17, 2009
11:31 AM


;	A few more suggestions: · Book Keeping Analyst – Since you’ve designated yourself the official score keeper, you need to get registered as well. I’m not sure which auditing firm you’re working for and we need to make sure you’re not affiliated with any of the parties involved. We need as much regulation and transparency as possible. I’m sure you understand. We don’t want to start our own FCFFL credit crisis. · Also I think there should be 5 points awarded to the individual that comes out with their picks first. This assists in the prevention of an individual “riding out” the picks of another person that has done all the research into making their picks.

The Bookie

Apr 17, 2009
11:34 AM


;	Hello guys, I haven`t posted since I made my picks. I am extremely surprised by the attention that I am getting, but a little disturbed at how many people are turning this into a heated competition. The way I see it, Sheridan and I at on the same side, we do this for fun (he`s been doing it a lot longer!), and we don`t have anything to prove by it. I am sure the both of us are doing it for the people. How boring would it be if there was only one opinion on every sports outlet you went to? The most refreshing read I remember in recent history was when Dr. Z from si.com correctly predicted that the giants would win the super bowl two years ago, and was the only one to think so. I did not mean to cause such a fuss, but I enjoyed making those picks and had fun doing it. I think it might have been luck, and I`m bound to be wrong a lot, but this is just flag football, and writing these dumb posts is not my job. I look forward to some health competition with sheridan this season, and will probably collaborate under the same thread as him in the future (locs reference to McShay and Kiper) PS just having a positive differential is not a good thing. The point of a bookie is to make money. If you set the spread in a steelers raiders game at -1 steelers, you`re not going to make any money when they beat them by 28. Therefore I think best picks that I made was the kryptonites and hokies games.

Err

Apr 17, 2009
11:35 AM


;	I liked that locs reference, woops

The Bookie

Apr 17, 2009
11:43 AM


;	Relax, I wasn`t bragging about it, I was referencing those picks to illustrate which one of those spreads would have made Vegas money.

Book Keeping Analyst

Apr 17, 2009
11:46 AM


;	How do you become a registered poster? And get a logo like Sheridan.

TC-92LOCS

Apr 17, 2009
11:51 AM


;	B®ookie, You better give the people what they want son. And the people want to see a battle. This may not have been your intentions in the beginnings, but got damn it, it is what it is. This is America, we want to see blood, gore and the whole nine. So either get out there and get you’re a*s handed to you or go make a name for yourself. This is your calling. The doors of the church are now open. Come on down brotha.

listener

Apr 17, 2009
12:10 PM


;	he is. his words bring home championships.

the

Apr 17, 2009
12:32 PM


;	keeper usually makes some good picks but i havent seen him around this season. where are you keeper?

Book #3

Apr 17, 2009
12:49 PM


;	I will be providing my picks beginning next week, most likely after Sheridan and The Bookie so I have something to go off of. Looking forward to seeing your picks! -"The Third Bookie"

Book #3

Apr 17, 2009
1:07 PM


;	If I would of posted the spreads i calculated this week, I would have been only a couple points off for only one game. Also, I do not play in the flag football league so I do not allow my emotions to affect my pick. I should have next weeks picks by Monday morning! Cheers, "The Third Bookie"

Book Keeper Analyst

Apr 17, 2009
1:34 PM


;	5 points awarded for first pick is a good idea, but I don`t think it`s fair. We have to trust the integrity of The Bookie and Sheridan that they will not use each others picks to base their own (from what I`ve heard I doubt either of them will, purely because of their competitive natures). I also think we should evaluate the winner by how much money he would`ve made if really gambling (i.e. each game worth $100). Just to use as a measuring stick of who the more effective Bookie would be.

Book #3

Apr 17, 2009
1:45 PM


;	OK, will we start with week 4? I hope to top my two competitors although they may be more experienced than me. Let the games begin!

Bookdeznutz

Apr 17, 2009
2:18 PM


;	make that 3 competitors, ill be postin as well rickies

Book #3

Apr 17, 2009
2:23 PM


;	Another bookie? I think we should limit how many we can have! Jeepers...

crackin me up

Apr 17, 2009
2:40 PM


;	it`s funny yet disturbing enough that youz guyz set betting lines on flag football, but the real mystery is how you gather enough weekly info to legitimize any spread you make??? i mean do you scout? go to the different fields and watch games? break down film? If any or all of the above applies I could look into buying or finding you a woman or somethin`. On any given game day I see 10 minutes of the game played before me, then all of my game, then 10 minutes of the game after me. i do love me the gambling threads, but it ain`t Vegas baby.

Speak

Apr 17, 2009
2:45 PM


;	True true true. But fun anyways.

fan

Apr 17, 2009
2:47 PM


;	i`ve been playing in the fairfax league for a handful of seasons and it doesn`t take long to have a good idea of how teams will do against each other. you don`t necessarily have to watch every team play to come up with a spread. you can have a good idea of how they did against another team, and what competition they are used to playing and come up with a decent line. i`m not claiming to be nearly as good as sheridan or anyone else at coming up with lines. but it doesn`t really take a ton of time to know the teams pretty well, or have a good idea of how they will do. also, it`s very possible that one of the oddsmakers is a ref or something

damn

Apr 17, 2009
3:08 PM


;	you guys all need lives

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